The rise of the C-price and it's influence on your favourite coffee

there are, however, a multitude of other complex factors that also influence the market price for coffee – meaning the supply-demand balance isn't as straightforward as we think.

Karl Wienhold is a researcher and PhD Candidate at the University of Lisbon. He also authored Cheap Coffee: Behind the Curtain of the Global Coffee Trade, which explores the economics and power imbalance of the coffee industry.

“If traders expect that the price of coffee will go up, they may buy more futures contracts in the hopes of selling them at a higher price down the line, which drives the price up,” he explains. The inverse is also true; if buyers speculate that prices will drop, they will sell more futures contracts so the current price will fall.

Because of this speculation, the C price is in constant fluctuation. Additionally, adverse weather conditions, geo-political factors, and supply chain disruptions can all have their own effect.

In recent months, it seems there is fresh news week-on-week that the price of arabica – and robusta – is steadily rising. Excessively dry weather in Brazil and Vietnam, the worlds's two biggest producers, is creating supply shortages and driving up international market prices. For almost a year, the general trend has been upwards. Today the C price reached its highest level since 2011 – and there are few signs that it will drop any time soon.

Ultimately, Karl says it’s difficult to know which way the market will swing at any given point.

“I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect that the C price will stay high or that it will eventually drop,” he says. “Based on econometric analyses I’ve conducted, it doesn’t appear nearly as connected with the published factors as the industry seems to believe. It’s anyone’s guess.”

Weather predictions can help to gauge how the C price might fluctuate. But given that extreme weather events are becoming more common in these countries there’s evidence to suggest otherwise.

Navigating Coffee Price Adjustments at Caffenation

At Caffenation, we’re always keeping a close eye on the coffee market and making necessary adjustments, ensuring you get the best quality without excessive price hikes. Here’s a breakdown of our current and upcoming price changes:

1. Coffee Drinks in the Bar

It’s common for us to adjust our prices each year to reflect inflation and market conditions. Thankfully, the impact of rising coffee prices on our drinks will be minimal. Since we use only 10 to 18 grams of coffee per cup, the C-market fluctuations won’t affect your favorite drinks significantly.

2. Coffee Bean Bags on the Shelf

For the coffee bags we offer in-store, you may notice a slight increase soon. We’re expecting a €0.50 price rise over the next couple of weeks for some of our offerings. However, as we carefully plan our stock in advance, no further increases are anticipated for the rest of this year. That said, look out for a few more adjustments at the beginning of 2025.

3. Wholesale Clients

For our wholesale customers, pricing changes are more dynamic. Our 30+ Single Origin coffees have a fixed margin and fluctuate accordingly throughout the year. When it comes to more affordable colors, like the Roast ED or Single Origin Brazil IAN, expect a €1 per kilo price rise in a few months when the new Brazil crop arrives.

Although the rise could have been steeper, we’ve secured a couple fantastic Central/East African coffees at a great price, which allows us to limit the increase and maintain excellent quality for colors like FIL and NOVA. 

Of course there is more than just the C-price. Also logistical, currency, financial and even geopolitical issues influence the price of coffee, but that's for another blog article.

Stay tuned for more updates, and as always, we appreciate your support!